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What a dreary day in ATH.  It has been raining for three straight days, but I kind of like it.  My daughter loves it, but I only kind of like it because I just keep thinking about the gutters and downspouts, drainage, the shedding of water off the roof near the chimney, and other homeowner concerns when an extraordinary amount of rain comes down.  Ignorance is bliss…

 
So last Friday I sat down with UGA Police Chief Jimmy Williamson to talk to him a little bit about the department and then more specifically about the changes in the department associated with the opening of the new Normaltown area Health Science Campus (HSC).  For the uninitiated, The HSC is a 57 acre new addition to UGA.  Located West of Downtown and Main Campus, the HSC is the former home of the U.S. Navy Supply School, which was recently closed as part of the Base Realignment and Closure Act (BRAC). Lots of folks kept calling the campus “the new med school campus” because the campus was soon going to house a new UGA med school in partnership with the Medical College of Georgia. The reality is a little different; yes the med school will be housed there, but many other heath science classes will also be held there (along with faculty offices and housing).  Estimates are that there will be up to 300 undergrads taking classes there each day along with the med school students (last I heard, the med school goal was to graduate 140 doctors each year).  Big changes for Normaltown are in process!  Normaltown, by the way, got its name from the fact that the Navy School was originally a normal school (teacher college) many moons ago. 

 
All this got me to thinking: An additional 57 acre satellite campus a few miles from main campus is surely going to change the UGA Police Department’s already unique role in the community.  Policing a large addition several miles away from main campus definitely puts the UGA police in more contact with the general public while wending their way to Normaltown.  What does that mean for us? The chief and I met a while ago when I showed him and his wife a house that I had listed, and I have since sort of kept up with him.  He was kind of enough to talk with Classic City Guide about the topic at hand.  It would be great if you would share this interview as a link with your friends in the community. The chief is a really good guy, and his crew that hails from what amounts to the coolest police station ever (The old/newly renovated Hodgson Oil Building in Downtown) are professionals from the top down.  Being a UGA police officer is not a stepping stone to a “real” police career, as you will hear; rather, they are the real deal and look after us in more ways than one.  Joe P.
 
 
 
If things go well, I am looking to have December be my best month of 2011.  Never thought I’d write a sentence like that, but business has picked up noticeably in the 4th Quarter in the Athens Area.  It is still extremely challenging to keep deals moving towards an actual closing, but that has a lot to do with appraisals and the quirky disposition of many buyers these days (More on that later). The report is encouraging and proves what I think many of us have already intuitively been realizing: Things are picking up! Is this the rebound we’ve all been waiting for? Perhaps but RE in this town is neighborhood by neighborhood, it’s that localized.  I will have a much better idea in three years…  ;^)
 

Read the report here.

It’s 8:30 AM and I just got back from dropping off my bro in law downtown to drink beer before the UGA vs. Kentucky game. Let me repeat, It’s 8:30 AM. Only in Athens…If I did that, tomorrow would feel like recovering from minor surgery.

Anyway, I came home and wrote a long post associated with the article below, and then I said, “forget it, trash it, let the article stand on its own merits.”

Flagpole Magazine — City Pages — Law Enforcement — 11.16.11

Has the Whole World Gone Mad?

(Water Sobchak: The Big Lebowski)

 

A funny thing happened to me again yesterday. I call is Foreclosure Mania, that intense desire to purchase a foreclosure, so much so that all other listings on the market are ignored regardless of their inherent value. The following anecdote will demonstrate how the affliction manifests itself in today’s buyer. But first, a description of the property involved.

This is a very cool, shed-style, 80’s era cedar-sided contemporary in the woods for 114k.  Move-in ready but could use some updating in the kitchen and baths, and all this could be done on the cheap, but the improvements are not absolutely necessary.  Lots of wow factor to the place. Open floorplan; vaulted ceilings; hearth-like fireplace; much like a mini ski-lodge). In my opinion, a steal at 114k. And that is the asking price. These are negotiable buyers. Also a very good location that is convenient to town, campus, and the East Side Athens retail corridor with grocery stores, banks, restaurants, cafes, bars, etc.

OK, so last night I got an automated text message from our lockbox provider, telling me that the above home was shown by a local realtor.  The house is vacant house, so I had no prior indication that the place would be shown, which is fine.  The showing agent is also a good friend of mine.  I called him a few hours later for feedback. He said the showing went well and that he was showing houses to a friend and he really wanted her to see my listing, which had been on his radar for a while. The basics of the conversation: Young woman buying first home, and according to the agent she “doesn’t have a lot of scratch” (love that term!).  She wants to be on the East Side of Athens.  She likes the house very much but “really wants to buy a foreclosure.” There wasn’t a touch of irony in how he said it. Forget that the house already has a killer price tag.  Forget the new roof, new interior paint throughout, a two car garage in a neighborhood of one car garages, new HVAC, original owner and more.  Forget that you would never find a foreclosure on the East Side in this good of shape at this price.  Not in a million years. Forget that it is already priced like a foreclosure and the sellers have told me to market their negotiability.

 

What gets me is that the buyer and presumably my friend are both wearing blinders (I chastised him for this, don’t worry). I mean, what are you shopping for, a home or a foreclosure? That’s like saying, “Yes, I realize that is a great sweater at a great price and I really really like it, but it’s not on the clearance rack!” OK, It’s not a closeout! It’s not on sale! But darn it, this is a kick butt house in a great college town, and it can be yours for probably lower than 114k! One Hundred Fourteen Thousand Dollars! Hello?

Sadly, I’ve heard this story so many times in the last two years that I am beginning to have a visceral response each time I hear it.  Last night, I was driving while having that conversation, and I began looking for the largest hardwood tree close to the road so I could steer my car right into it and end the pain! Nahh…that’s too easy. I guess I will just grin and bear it.

But seriously, somebody tell me what I am missing? Am I not seeing something here that would explain the near sightedness on the part of the buyer and her agent? Isn’t it incumbent upon him to step up and disabuse her of her notions? Instead, I think he gulped some kool-aid too.  When is this going to end?

“I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.”

(Elvis Costello: Angels Wanna Wear my Red Shoes.)

 

Now that the buying season is supposedly officially over, it is time time to prep your house for next year’s market…which begins in three months! No kidding. Expect a bit of a slow down in the last quarter almost upon us, but there is still a market in the year’s last three months. I had my best best month ever one November about three years ago. Man, the number 3 is figuring prominently in this post, so let’s stick with it. If you are really thinking about selling next year, er uh, I mean in three months, you need to prepare now. Don’t wait. Holidays will be here shortly and Jan 1 is a blink away. There are plenty of things you can be doing that you will be glad you did come crunch time, that dreaded week before the listing when you are working on the long list of things you still need to do before the photographer arrives.

Here are three things you can do right away, without even thinking about it. Well, four, actually, if you do the right thing and call a realtor after step three. That is a given. So many listings appointments I go to have faded FSBO signs in the garage. Some of us are actually pretty good at what we do ;^)

1. De-Clutter – Remove everything in your house that you know deep down that you really don’t use that much. Get rid of the rowing machine (do they still exist?). Box up the 2000 pounds of books. All the stuff in room corners, get rid of it. Closets! Clean ‘em out. Box and store off property, donate it, or throw it out, vowing to never again acquire so much crap! Also? De-Stage if you are the type who likes wall after wall of little tables that look nice but just make your otherwise larger house feel tiny. Anything that is not functional, seriously consider removing before deciding to keep it. And here’s a tip: If you are even remotely considering removing something, remove it! My clients ask WWJS: What would Joe say? Get it gone! And tackle the Laundry Room!

2. Clean – Nothing makes a buyer walk out of a house like grime. Nothing makes a place look sharp and crisp like no grime. Buyers rarely comment on how clean a house is (they expect it to be clean), but when they see inexplicably grimy floor trim, soiled light switches, fan blades caked with years of dust and grease, they get really skeeved really quickly. Do this deep cleaning now and then simply maintain it. And tackle the Laundry Room! Can’t do it alone? PAY SOMEONE TO HELP YOU! Admit you suck at cleaning, vow to change, and get it done. You will like the results so much, you may not want to move. Careful! Pride is a dangerous thing.

3. Yard Work and Garage – Remember that person you fancied yourself when you first bought your house? You know, the happy homeowner who was going to garden every weekend, do wood working in your spacious garage (Honey, we could have a party in here!). Then the kids came and while they demanded so much attention, your house did something really weird: It became your home. You actually lived in it! God forbid! And playing with the kids at the baseball field, face it, is way more fun (and more important) than staying on top of things domestically speaking. Well, now’s the time.
First: The Garage. If you have one, that is, of you don’t, you win! Declutter the hell out of it! All the scraps of wood, the myriad projects started and stopped, the Christmas tree laying in the corner like a mob hit. GO TO THE DUMP, and vow to never be this way again. Organize for the umpteenth time, but this time, keep it this way…at least until you see the place, right! Go in on a dumpster with a neighbor or two and agree to have it located in your driveway for 5 days. Fill it, and curse yourself for have too much stuff…we’ve all been there. Whatever. Again, if it is daunting, pay someone to help you. I can give you three names today of reliable and inexpensive helpers to ease your burden and still get you on the couch for the game, so no excuses.
Second: The Yard: Engage in some improvements using what I call Addition by Subtraction. Piece of cake. You need hand pruners, loppers, pruning saw, rake, maybe a shovel. You would not believe the drastic change you can make to your curb appeal simply by limbing up trees, hacking back shrubs (or removing them altogether), Debulking all the biomass from last year’s fall that you just kept blowing to the sides, clean the gutters and roof, pull weeds and cut /dig out volunteer plants that are turing into trees and growing at your foundation. Hose stuff down. That’s it. I didn’t even suggest planting some color by the front door! But you already know that, and that can wait for closer to listing day and for another blog post…

Holy Cow!

 With the debt crisis sort of figured out, the immediate fear of rate increases seems to have receded.  In fact, instead of skyrocketing rates, the opposite seems to have occurred.  Here is a survey from two banks and one broker, all local lenders.  Say it with me: Always Use a Local Lender!

Conventional 30 Year Fixed Conventional 15 Year Fixed FHA 30 Year Fixed Jumbo to $650000.00 30 Year Fixed Jumbo to $650000.00 15 Year Fixed Rating: Fair, Good, Great, Whoa!
4.23% 3.375% 4.25% 4.75% 3.875% Whoa!
4.25% 3.625% 4.00% 4.625% 4.125% Whoa!
4.25% 3.75 (no origination) 4.25% (no origination) 4.75% 4.25% Whoa!

Curious about overall real estate sales trends in the Athens, GA Five County Area? Here’s a snapshot of what we intuitively know is happening.
These numbers only represent those transactions closed by realtors, and they present an interesting picture. I wish I had more graphing talent to show you just how large of a swing we’ve seen, but I will have to leave those depressing numbers to the spreadsheet below the graph. They really show what we homeowners are up against when we are making life decisions that require us to take into consideration the real estate we own.

Total Sales as Recorded by Our Local Athens MLS

 

Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Units Sold
2055
2280
2528
2621
2091
1701
1420
1291
704
Average
Sold Price
177500
185400
196500
208000
213200
207900
188600
177300
166700
Median
Sold Price
151900
155900
164000
169900
174900
167000
154700
151520
138000

Notes:

  • Average Sold Price in 2011 is lower than 2003 levels by over $10,000.00.
  • As of July 2011, Average Sold Price is down almost $10,000.00 over last year’s numbers, and a whopping $46,500.00 over the high in 2003.
  • There as been a steady decline in units sold with 2011 tracking to likely be over 2010 numbers if we have a strong second half.
  • Number of units sold dropped dramatically in 2007, the peak year in the boom with an even more marked decrease in units sold the following year.  Curious…
  • Ouch! The median average is down over $13,000.00 in one year with half the houses in 2011 so far having sold below the 138,000 level. We have the foreclosure market to thank for this one

Conclusion:

  • Prices are continuing to fall from 2007 highs in theAthens,GA.How low can we go? Don’t know. We are already way lower than the 2003 numbers.
  • The current market conditions are already making this a terrific time to buy, in my opinion. Money is cheap, inventory is plentiful, and it looks like the deals will continue.
  • We have the investor market thank for any robust activity, if you can call it that.  Cash buyers are out in force but they aren’t stupid, and they are forcing prices lower.

Next, I will check out the trends in the higher end market since I am beginning to notice some movement there compared to the last two/three years, and I think it would be interesting to see how the numbers stack up

against my day to day observations. 

JP

“Stay alive as long as you live”

  J.W. Fanning

 Bloggers are an interesting bunch.  Correction: GOOD bloggers are an interesting bunch.  They post regularly, often for years, even when no one is reading.  They just keep going. But here’s the thing: some of the busiest folks I know still carve out time to blog.  My sister is a classic example. Check her our out at The Blog That Ate Manhattan.    She is a physician in NYC and she is also affiliated with a med school there.  She runs a busy practice, does research and publishing, raises two kids, and seems to post weekly two to three times.  Add to this the fact that we lost mom in December and our sister Frannie in May and one could understand a lapse.  That was my excuse, anyway.  The last year has been a blur for our family. And the RE biz for me has been as all-consuming as ever.  Excuses. Sister Peggy is my new inspiration.

My Last Post was in March 2010. Here’s a Random Recall of last 16 Months:

I’ve had probably close to 50 closings since my last post.  That is 50 transactions, each with their own unique challenges, sets of buyers/sellers, inspections, reviews, revisits with contractors, lenders, appraisals, rounds and rounds of negotiations, walk-throughs, closing table pageantry, hugs, and the occasional tears.  Bills, Fees, License Renewal Classes! To say we age in dog years in this business is not complete hyperbole.

I won Best Realtor 2010 in Athens in the Athens Banner Herald’s “Readers’ Choice Awards!” I finished 2010 as the  #2 agent in our office, the largest firm in the Athens area, and I reached the Circle of Distinction in our local association of realtors. Also was awarded a President’s Circle Plaque by Coldwell Banker Corporate (still not sure what that indicated but I was happy).

Last time I posted, the majority of the market was dominated by homes sales in the 100k to 200k range.  Now it is driven by the 30k to 120k range.  However, the over 200k market is decidedly busier than last year and the luxury home market (400k+) has gotten a bit unstuck (mostly in Oconee County).

 

Foreclosures have continued coming but it’s a bit better here than nationally.  The cumulative and evolving effects are rapidly becoming clearer.  Over a million last year and a million more coming.  HUD owned houses are popping up everywhere (There’s an app for that!), and word on the street is it is going to take 20 more years to sort that all out. Cash buyers are descending on distressed properties, and who wouldn’t? Deals are crazy! A 3/2 four-side brick for 59k?  25 Condos on ATL HGWY for 17k a unit? Almost fully rented? Are you kidding me? Talk about cash on cash return! Speculative builders are snatching up developed lots at fire sale prices (more on that in another post). Fully a 1/3 of the nation’s RE transactions have been cash purchases, and their still coming…

 

Interest rates continue to be at staggeringly affordable levels right now.  Money has never been cheaper for as long! Ironically, buyers have never been more hesitant to pull the trigger on purchasing.  Lenders are treating even the best buyers like they just got out of prison for embezzlement, but dealing with their requirements is a small price to pay for taking advantage of cheap money and cheap home prices. 

And…the real estate profession continues to surprise and awe. It is a good feeling to be part of  and successful in a real estate market that continues to challenge resolve and steadfastness. This is a ride you can’t jump off once you choose to jump on, I’ll tell you that.  What’s the poker term, All In?  I will refrain from any DNA analogies but RE seems to be in one’s fiber after a while…and that’s fine with me.

 

“Pluck the thistle of doubt and plant in deep and fertile ground the rose of hope.” J.W. Fanning

I will make this one short since it is really a footnote for the last post.  In a nutshell: If you are buying a foreclosure, make sure you have some type of inspection period (banks and the feds usually grant you about 5 days…short but doable if you move quickly to do you due diligence).  During this period, GET THE SEPTIC SYSTEM INSPECTED! This service usually requires a system pumping in order to take a good look at it, and if you end up not buying it, then the seller just got a free service from you, but it is worth the 250.00 or so (Athens, GA prices) to have the inspection done.  Don’t make the assumption that because the foreclosure is a newer house that the septic system is probably fine.  My septic guy (yes, I have a septic guy…) told me recently of a new system in which the leach lines were never installed.  Just a big cauldron of poop under ground.  Mmmm…  Anyway, new houses can have failing systems just as easily as older houses, especially in ATH area after the tremendous amount of rain we had last year.  Finally, there are many reasons that owners get foreclosed upon, so I do not want the next statement to be taken the wrong way, but I will say it anyway.  Some people should never have been allowed to purchase a home with someone else’s money, and these buyers knew it from the start.  They never took care of their homes, and totally trashed them from the day they entered the place.  How else do you explain the absolute digusting/horrible state of a two to three year old home?  Logically extend this reality to the septic system, and just imagine what the state if it could be.  Enough said…JP

The following is an email exchange between a client and me this morning.  It seems that so much of what we are doing as realtors these days is anything but routine, and every email, telephone call, market analysis, etc., seems to have so much more riding on it than in the past.  Not to say that your RE investment was less important back when, but bottom lines and the frenzy associated with buying and selling seems to have become normalized.  It’s anyone’s guess what is going to happen when the cast comes off this broken leg of a market on April 30th.  Currently, this business is short on joy and long on anxiety for all involved.  As always, though, there is a market (I closed just under 40 units last year), and you need to be following a plan, which includes working with honest, forthright and intelligent professionals, understanding your market area, and being objective/realistic about your personal home that you want to sell.  And PLEASE don’t shoot the messenger.

 Names have been changed for privacy

 Dear Joe:

Busy working on the house. Xxxx xxxxxx is to come next Monday to do some of the repairs. Hopefully xxxx will be here next week or week after to get the high painting done. xxxx’s been working on the main living area, and it looks a lot better. Meanwhile, we’re throwing things away!

 Got the official offer for the job, and awaiting the paper from personnel. Moving along.

We noticed today two houses newly listed on our street. Your agency has 1234 Xxxx Drive listed (next house down from us) now. Xxxx Real Estate has a house up at the top of the street that was listed for a while last fall. Can you look those up and see the details?

I’d like to have some of the work done before we have you back out so you can give us more feedback at that point on what needs still to be done. We can sign paperwork whenever you want.

Xxx

—————————

Hi Xxx.

 I kind of thought you would get the job you were going after.  Congratulations! 

I will send you an email from our local MLS, and it will contain a link to the information and “slide shows” for all the listings, old and new, in your neighborhood.  This should catch you up on what is on the market there.  I am beginning to see what I predicted earlier in the winter: an earlier buying season is rocking and rolling already (busier by the day), and lots of much nicer product for buyers to choose from compared to last year is hitting market as proud homeowners, who refused to be insulted by low offers last year, are now going ahead with listing this year out of necessity, desire, willingness to sell for less since there is a repeat buyer tax credit, etc.  I would definitely shoot for a March 1st listing date, giving you two months to expose the house to the Pre-Tax-Credit Expiration Buying Rush ending April 30th. 

Average days on market in the ATH area is about 180 days, believe it or not, so initial pricing is rapidly becoming hyper-critical.

Many sellers start high to “test” the market, something I encourage in many case, but I do not know if that wisdom applies to this current market.  I understand the concept of not wanting to give money away, but the risk/reward component can’t be ignored at this point.  Starting lower than the “top end” makes sellers fear that would just result in a lower offer, which it will, but you do not have to accept it.  A lower starting price truly merely changes your negotiating strategy when an offer does come in.  You don’t have that extra wiggle room, but I can explain that to any agent who submits an offer.  You definitely want to make sure that whatever your bottom line is, be sure to leave room to contribute to buyer’s closing costs (typically 3-4% of sales price).  Not suggesting you start at 3-4% below bottom line right off the bat, but when we meet to list the property, we can discuss a strategy for what you will do if the property is not getting offers.  More on that later when we meet again. 

Keep me posted, and let me know when you need me out for a final punch-list walk through.  Looking forward to seeing you two again. 

Best.

Joe P.

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